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NRC II's approach: multiply the random match probability by the size of the database. (Keith Inman, Forensic Analytical)

If the suspect is identified through a DNA database search, the interpretation of the match probability and likelihood ratio given in Chapter 4 should be modified.

Recommendation 5.1: When the suspect is found by a search of DNA databases, the random-match probability should be multiplied by N, the number of persons in the database.

If one wishes to describe the impact of the DNA evidence under the hypothesis that the source of the evidence sample is someone in the database, then the likelihood ratio should be divided by N. As database searches become more extensive, another problem may arise. If the database searched includes a large proportion of the population, the analysis must take this into account. In the extreme case a search of the whole population should, of course, provide a definitive answer.

Materials

National Resource Council (NRC). The evaluation of forensic DNA evidence. Washington DC, National Academy Press; 1996.