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What weight should be given to a DNA profile "cold hit?" (Drs. Balding, Inman, Mueller, and Raymer)

What is the appropriate calculation to compute the statistical significance of a match when someone has been identified as a suspect through a cold-hit DNA search? This question has proved to be highly contentious in recent years, for example in the high-profile Raymond Jenkins case in Washington D.C., U.S. v. Jenkins, 887 A.2d 1013 (2005), and in the Michael Johnson case in Tulare County, People v. Johnson, 139 Cal.App.4th 1135 (2006). And with criminal investigation organizations making increasing use of the cold-hit technique, the issue is going to become far more prevalent in the future. Two attempts by the National Research Council to provide guidance have failed so far to resolve the issue.

Materials

Keith Devlin. Scientific heat about cold hits. Unfinished draft. 2005.